WEF risk assessment - Points for discussion

 

The WEF Global Risk Report is always a good read highlighting the perceptions by global leaders on what are the greatest risks in the short and long-run. It appears the risk assessments are ripped from the current headlines and are not based on deep thinking; nonetheless, their interconnection map and rankings provide a useful starting point for risk discussion. You may not agree with their risk assessments and presentation, but it does provide context of what is on the minds of major political, business, and thought leaders. 

The number one short-term issue is misinformation or disinformation although it is not exactly clear what that means. If you listen and act on misinformation, there will be clear risks when you find out that what you thought was true is untrue, but what will that lead to? How are economies and societies impacted by misinformation? Clearly, the misinformation of scientific facts are extremely dangerous but there are controls in place to limit risks. There is misinformation of what are verifiable truths, but in this case, the harm can be limited. Is the problem misinterpretation? I find this top risk odd and can be solved through a high degree of skepticism which is good. 

Extreme weather is also an interesting global risk since extremes are often localized. The real weather issue is systemic changes from the norm. Armed conflict only makes it into the top five although the impact can be large and immediate. Most of the biggest macro risks of the last 100 years have been armed conflict. This should always but a top pick. 

The long-term risks are all environmental which also seems odd. These risks are a variation on negative views embedded in Malthusian ideas. In ten years, is it possible that there can be technological changes that can mitigate these risks? Can there be adaptation to these risks? 

Surprising, economic issues of debt and inflation are not front and center in the list albeit in the top ten. Perhaps focused but economics are always a top risk. Solutions to environmental risks and misinformation are always driven by economic impacts and costs.