This simple table for 2023 shows the original jobs report estimate and then the revised number. What is clear is that for eleven of twelve months, the original estimate was revised down. The job report was not as rosy as first expected. On an absolute number, the jobs data for 2023 look good. There has been a slight decline if you follow a six-month moving average which is expected given the increases in rates; however, if you want to trade the headline or the surprise you will be caught in a problem of adjustments for revision in the past. This month may look good but last month is revised down, the combination of the last two months may generate a different picture than what was expected. These effects have to be accounted for with any back-test using jobs data.
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