We have discussed this before, but the LEI is still at extremely low levels. It may be bouncing off a low and did not reach the critical down 10% YoY, but it has been indicating a major slowdown. The real GDP on the other hand is moving higher.
The hard landing story is likely over and there may not even be a soft landing. We have seen major divergences between the LEI and GDP in the past. There is no reason, given construction of an index and GDP, that these two should have a percentage connection, but large LEI down moves are associated with a recession. The 2001 period may be similar today but there was a NBER recession.
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