China looks to be the potential driver of the global economy given the evidence of stronger relative growth from official numbers. Any global economic and market success will be closely tied to China success just like with the Great Financial Crisis. However, there is a fair amount of disagreement on the actual numbers coming from China and the composition of growth. China export trade has increased but for global growth, China has to generate a robust domestic consumer market with increased imports. The size and type of China growth is relevant for the rest of the world and the policy choices by China are critical for macro forecasting.
So, where do you turn to for good China information? Obviously, there are the usual news source and economic data and a number of firms have developed their own economic growth indictors, but more important may be the overall China policy analysis. I use three unbiased sources for forming a China macro picture which will be slightly different from what is found in the writings of brokerage firms and major news outlets:
1. The China dashboard from the Asia Society provides comprehensive quarterly analysis on a range of China topics, see chinadashboard.asiasociety.org.
2. The China center at the University of Southern California for current thinking on China policy, see china.usc.edu.
3. The China macro reporter by Malcom Riddell provides regular timely information and links to important thinkers and policy discussions, see chinadebate.com.
These websites do not provide market forecasts, but they provide good context and analysis for any top-down discussion.
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