"Disciplined Systematic Global Macro Views" focuses on current economic and finance issues, changes in market structure and the hedge fund industry as well as how to be a better decision-maker in the global macro investment space.
Thursday, April 10, 2025
The stock market - It is not your normal distribution
The stock market is not your normal distribution, yet we often focus on normal return stats. For risk management, assume normality at your own peril. Market extremes usually come in clusters when there is a regime switch in volatility, which does not change the fact that outliers exist. You can windsorize to take out extremes; however, that does not change the risk. Yes, April has been an unusual month.
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