Sunday, April 13, 2025

The four eras of trade? Douglas Irwin's view



Douglas Irwin—there were three alliterative eras: “revenue, restriction, and reciprocity.” Yet we may be in a new fourth era of retribution.

The first era was the period pre-Civil War when tariffs were used as a revenue generator. The second post-Civil War period was one of tariffs that restricted foreign competition and allowed US manufacturing to grow. The post-WWII period was one of reciprocity, where the objective was a mutual decline in tariff levels. This led to a great explosion in global trade through GATT and the WTO arrangements. 

The Trump era may be a combination of the first three with a fourth objective of retribution for those who cross the Trump objectives. Irwin's assessment seems to be a good framework for thinking about trade issues beyond the tactical issues of new policies.

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