Saturday, April 12, 2025

Forget the bond market - look at bonds

 


The weekly change in 10-year Treasury yields is unprecedented. We have to go back almost to the beginning of the 21st century. Of course, this was coupled with the huge decline in stocks and then a large positive increase. The intraday moves in Treasuries are even more extreme, which suggests a liquidity problem.

The size of the Treasury markets has outstripped the ability of dealers to maintain an orderly market. What has been the driver for liquidity has been quasi-arbitrage traders who keep markets inline through their active trading activity in the Treasury basis at high leverage. If the market volatility increases to extreme levels, these RV traders will have to exit the market or deliver, which creates a liquidity vacuum. If RV traders are pushed out of the market, they will not be easily replaced, which means there will be a more permanent impact on liquidity. This will impact all Treasury trading. 




No comments: