Wednesday, December 28, 2022

VUCA and VUCA prime - more on Volatility Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity


Coach Lasso’s paradigm appears to be the personification of “VUCA Prime,” a countermeasure created by Bob Johansen. In his version, VUCA stands for “vision, understanding, clarity and agility.” Leaders like Ted Lasso who apply VUCA Prime can thrive and create opportunities for success instead of suffering from terminal paralysis by analysis. 

-"Commentary: How can we thrive in a VUCA environment?" Dayton Daily News 

We have been a strong advocate of using VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity) as a guiding framework for discussion concerning the investment environment. The world can have more or less VUCA, but you will always have to deal with the four factors. The VUCA prime concept attempts to address how an investor should behave to offset the problems of VUCA. 

Vision is not just strategy but seeing the environment for what it is, good or bad. 

Understanding attempts to make sense of the world even if it is confusing. 

Clarity is what an investor strives for, although it is not clear whether it can be achieved.

Agility is how you need to behave in a VUCA environment. VUCA means that any investor may need to quickly change and adapt to the market. 

Being a successful trader or investor is not about being a better predictor but being better at dealing with the things we do not know, and the complexity of the environment faced. The best strategy may be to walk-away and hold cash given the level of uncertainty faced.

(See Living in a VUCA world - This is the core problem for investors.)

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