Wednesday, December 14, 2022

The gold and dollar negative correlation and cointegration


The dollar is coming off its high based on the expectation that the FOMC is going to slow their rate increases starting today. With less upward rate pressure, dollar buying has declined, and gold is making a comeback. There is a strong inverse relationship between these two "safe" assets. You may prefer holding dollars given you get a nominal return on assets, but with inflation still at 7%, gold is a good alternative especially if the short-term rate increases will slow. Real rates are attractive versus a year ago, but a slowing of Fed rate increases suggest that the march to the 2% target may take longer than expected and gold may look more attractive.




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