Isaiah Berlin as an investor - Accept complexity but focus on simplicity

"Scholars are usually at greater risk of exaggerating how complex the world is then they are of underestimating how complex it is" 

"I think politics is more cloudlike than clocklike ("cloudlike" meaning inherently unpredictable; "clocklike" meaning perfectly predictable if we have adequate knowledge."

"The more common error in decision making is to abandon good ideas too quickly, not to stick with bad ideas too long" 

"To understand is to perceive patterns."

"Philosophers are adults who persist in asking childish questions."

- Isaiah Berlin, the 20th century philosopher may have something to say to investors. He is best known for his work on describing intellectuals as either hedgehogs or foxes based on the Ancient Greek proverb.

You can substitute the word investor and markets for scholars and politics and get a good idea of Berlin's thinking. Many investors exaggerate the complexity of the world which makes it hard to generate predictions. Yes, the world is complex, but it is good to start with a simple view and then add complexity. If the complexity helps explain reality, add it. If it just adds noise, forget it.

The markets are often cloudlike and not clocklike. We must live and accept the cloudiness of markets. There is a "fog of war" with markets that cannot be eliminated when making decisions. The fog may lift after the decision is made and an assessment of success is undertaken if you are lucky.

Investors will abandon good idea because they are not patient enough to let them work. Markets will often focus on a bad idea that seems to make sense in the moment. Understanding allows us to find patterns.

The great investors will persist in asking simple questions.