A low value for the BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Index (BGR) suggests that these macro risks are not getting much investor attention. It could be that these risks are just low, or it could be that there is a lack of attention on important global issues. Either way, geopolitics are currently just not important to investors, and that is problematic.
Geopolitical risks can be isolated to a specific regions or sectors, but more often, it is a common factor that will directly impact market risk. The potential price impact will be stronger if key markets are overvalued. Whether China-US tensions, or new Middle East issues, these will have a common impact that will serve as a valuation catalyst.
The BGR index has been falling since the change in US administrations, yet the leading geopolitical risks have not changed and policies have not significantly changed. However, perceptions that there is policy clarity in the face of geopolitical risks have fallen. The current ambivalence to geopolitical risks is worrisome and should require action. However, taking risk off the table is never rewarded during the waiting period before a crisis.
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