World trade back to the expected trend level, but what is next?

Global growth and emerging market growth are closely tied to world trade. The trend in world trade has never returned to the old growth rates as measured by the CPB World Trade Monitor. The pandemic created a huge decline in trade, but the trend was already pointed lower. The data shows a return to trend, the great reflation. 

However, a look at growth rates after the Great Recession shows an overshoot and then a return to the long trend. The question is whether this will be above the 5% range or in the below 5% range. we expect something in the low end of the 2-4% range given current geopolitics, transportation costs, and the reversal of just in time inventory practices.