There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know. Those tend to be the difficult ones.
- Donald Rumsfeld
Donald Rumsfeld, best known as the former US defense secretary, died last month. Smart, arrogant, and a man who would not suffers fools gladly, Donald Rumsfeld will always be connected with one of the all-time great quotes on uncertainty. Love him or hate him, he will be known as the "unknown unknowns" guy. I cannot count the number of times I have used the quote and have applied it to a sticky decision problem. It is important to often step back and determine what is known, unknown, and could be known.
Most recently, I posted about the uncertainty gap, the distance between what we know and what we need to know. Good decision-making focuses on closing the unknown gap. (See - Uncertainty - the gap between what we know and what we need to know)
He could have followed at key times his own advise on unknowns, yet he likely made those around him smarter especially if they were willing to face the unknown challenge.
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