Sunday, March 22, 2020

Gold - Serving as a source of liquidity

In a crisis, isn't gold supposed to go higher?  If central banks are exploding their balance sheets, isn't demand for gold supposed to increase? We are beyond normal behavior and have seen price behavior similar to this before. When there is a major market sell-off across all major assets, there is a shortage of liquidity and high uncertainty in fair value. Many mutual funds and ETFs are selling at a discount to NAV and some hedge funds are not providing liquidity. 

In this uncertain environment, gold serves as an asset that can be easily liquified. It can be sold immediately. Hence, there will be more selling pressure on this asset to make margin payments and raise cash. A reversal in gold prices will tell us that cash raising pressure may have diminished. Gold price behavior is always more complex than any simple inflation or crisis narrative.

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