Monday, October 21, 2013

Shiller's impact on finance



Business Insider provided an interesting article on new Noble Prize winner Robert Shiller's contribution to finance. It shows all what you need to know in just two graphs. The first is a graph on cyclically adjusted price earnings ratios. It clearly shows that there was a market extreme or bubble in 2000. This is the signal that there likely was irrational exuberance in the stock market. The second graph is the index of housing prices against building costs, population growth, and interest rates. It clearly shows that prices moved way beyond what should be expected as normal. Again, evidence that there  may have been a bubble. 

Robert Shiller has made more contributions than these two charts, but this may be the simplest way to show what he has been working on over his career.

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