Each year, the World Economic Forum provides a global risk perception survey. This is one of the most comprehensive risk surveys, and it provides useful context on what business leaders are thinking about potential disruptions to the global economy. The benefit of this survey is that it provides overall rankings for each year and measures change from the prior year.
By far, the current global risk landscape identifies geoeconomic confrontation as the top risk, followed by state-based conflict. Now, for anyone reading the news, this seems very logical, but it is sobering to see it in print. It has moved up from the eighth spot last year to number one. Along with confrontation, economic downturns, inflation, and bubbles pose key risks. These risks are important in both the short and long term, although climate change is still considered a long-term risk.
What does this mean? First, it is hard to believe that risky assets will continue on the current path with these views. Second, as noted in a recent post, Bonds are not always a safe asset; holding bonds may not provide the desired safety during an armed conflict or war.
No comments:
Post a Comment