Sunday, February 8, 2026

“Low-hire, Low-fire” labor environment - Labor gridlock




In a K-shaped economy, we are seeing labor market gridlock. Job openings are falling, and separations are low. Quit rates are also at the lowest levels since the pandemic. Workers do not want to leave their jobs. Firms do not want to hire workers, nor do they want to fire them, because they don’t think they can find better workers. Turnover is a good sign for a labor market, and we are not seeing this in the US economy. The economy is gridlocked on uncertainty. If you don’t know what the future may hold, you don’t want ot make new investment decisions in labor or capital. 

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