Living in an uncertain world - All policy uncertainty indices point in the same direction

 

Several policy uncertainty indices can be found in the FRED database. All tell investors the same thing: We live in an uncertain world. There is a difference between risk and uncertainty. Risk is measurable, has a specific measure, and is based on counting. Uncertainty cannot be counted. It is subjective and based on our ignorance of what we do not know.  The policy uncertainty indices try to turn this ignorance measure into something that can be measured.  

While the trade policy uncertainty is off the charts, all the other measures are close to extremes. This will have an effect on markets, investment decisions, and consumption. Regardless of current data, the future does not look bright.