Recoveries will age but look for bad behavior first

An old paper that I forgot about but still relevant today is "Will the Economic Recovery Die of Old Age?". Recoveries can get long in the tooth, but most recessions are man-made. The cause a recession can be Minsky speculative excess, poor policies, or just old age. They are created from bad policy choices or the accumulation of excesses, yet like mortality tables there is a life span for any recovery. Of course, through good policies, the length can be extended. We can expect that current recoveries will have a longer life past on history, but the likelihood of failure will still go up as we age. We are better at getting policy right, but we are not perfect. The current recovery can still continue and the likelihood of a recession is still likely below double digits, but watch for signs.