Monday starts Trump 2.0. Many are expecting a new regime or world order. Certainly, there are clear signals of significant change. Many are thinking this will be an extension of Trump 1.0. Still others just want to return to some bygone era that did not exist. Most investors do not want to see big upheaval in policies and prefer slow transitions.
I don't want to provide an exhaustive description of different regimes but open a discussion on different time periods based on presidents. Unfortunately, many presidencies are not determined by the personality of the man but by the events that are faced. In fact, every presidential regime is clouded or burdened by some singular economic event. Interestingly, most look at presidential periods based on a cultural lens and not a policy perspective. These comments to describe the periods are focused on economic events.
Reagan- Bush - The change away from big government that did not occur; currency upheaval, interest rate upheaval and then decline, stock increase, stock market crash and thrift crisis.
Clinton - the peace dividend, The Great Moderation, but also the EMS crisis, Mexican debt crisis, Asian and LTCM crisis, end of deficits. a Democrat extension of the Reagan-Bush period
Bush-Obama - The great pivot to Middle East tensions and the end of the peace dividend and singular US hegemony; the Great Financial Crisis and the new era of QE.
Trump-Biden - Period of adjust and rethinking impacted by the singular event of the Pandemic. The move to a bipolar world with a breakdown of global organization.
Trump 2.0 - The new world of trade and further erosion of the great period of globalization. the furthering of a bipolar world.
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