Saturday, October 7, 2023

Policy magic - The need to pullback the curtain on policy action

 


There is the magic of sleight of hand, but there is also the magic of forming a new reality to say that the impossible is possible, that the world is without constraints, and the we have clairvoyance. The use of magic was an attempt to show someone had power over the normal to impress and can control. The scientific revolution and Enlightenment stomped out the old magic and replaced the world with rules and order in the natural world. There are limitations of what can achieved. There are bounds on what is possible.   

The foundation of economics is about setting boundaries on what is possible in markets. There are budget constraints. There is sensitivity to price. There are constraints on growth. Most importantly, there are constraints on what is knowable, what can be forecast, and what can be linked across markets.

Now we come to the world of government policy. In this policy world, magic is still possible or at least believed by the magician. There are no constraints. There rules of supply and demand do not always hold. What is wished for can become a reality. There are no consequences for budget deficits. There are consequences from increasing the money supply. Forecasts are achievable if we wish hard enough. We have the ability to see into the future and the effect of our policies will always prove to be effective.  We use language and models to offer confusion on what is really going on. 

Unfortunately, the magician too often believes their magic, but they will be found to be false. Eventually the trick of magic is revealed, and the laws of economics and science will be shown to prevail. Science or in this case the laws of economics were always right. It was just masked through confusion and distraction. Of course, this magical world can also apply to business, but there are more constraints that will reduce the time before the sleight of hand is revealed. Do not believe in magic.

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