Saturday, October 7, 2023

Inflation debasement more than economic - political


"There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency." - Keynes 1919 

We must think about inflation beyond the numbers and the impact on Fed policy and asset prices. There is a political component.

You can frame this debasement comment in two directions, a decline in the value of the currency or a decline in the value of domestic purchasing power. Inflation debases your purchasing power - for the same bundle of cash will get less goods. The debasement of the currency is a relative price issue. The dollar can still gain in value versus another currency, a relative gain. Currently, we are not seeing a decline in the value of the dollar but a significant decline in domestic purchasing power. 

Society is destroyed through the growing gap between low- and high-income households. The wealthy have a greater ability to protect against inflation while lower income households are not able to grow wealth and are likely to have more constraints on wage increases. Their marginal propensity to consume is higher. There is not slack in their budgets for higher real prices. If there is no chance for economic growth, thinking is focused in how to get more from others, a redistribution. Politics allow for redistribution especially with the economic majority attempting to take from the minority, those who have wealth. We must accept that politics will be driven by inflation shocks.

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