"Those who have knowledge don't predict. Those who predict don't have knowledge"
- Lao Tzu
"The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance - it is the illusion of knowledge" - Daniel J Boorstin
So, what is someone to do, predict or not predict? How can you make judgements in financial markets without some predictions. The crux is that most investing should not be about predicting but counting. Count the likelihood of events and then follow the odds. The counting approach is not creating a narrative about what will happen in the future, but thinking about the numbers that may occur if a given event occurs. This is inherently reactive, but it can provide an edge. The count may change, and other facts may contribute but it is not the same as a prediction of what will happen. There is no illusion of knowledge other than what has happened in the past may occur again if the same conditions exist.
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