Fin-Fi (Financial Fiction not Sci-Fi Science Fiction) - Just speculation without focus

There is a new fad in finance - Fin-Fi, not to be confused with Sci-fi although there are similarities. Fin-Fi is the description of alternative finance universes that may evolve from the current environment. These narratives are futuristic visions of what finance and economies may be like, not what they are today. It can be viewed as fun thought experiments worthy of good cocktail chatter, but these fin-fi stories create a distortion about risks and uncertainty in financial markets can have real effects.

Is it important to think about alternative futures of finance? Yes, but what is often missing is the story of transition or how we go from today to these new tomorrows. 

The current fad in fin-fi is what the world monetary order will look after the sanctions on Russia. Some have suggested a new world order, Bretton Woods 3, which will be a return or variation on commodity-based currencies. It is provocative and provides a new perspective, yet it not something we will likely see in the near-term. Many fin-fi stories have suggested the demise of the dollar as the international reserve currency. Some have called for world broken into free and authoritarian countries in a new Cold War. The liberal dollar order is under stress but that is different from a new monetary regime. Let the narrative come forth, nevertheless, separate dollar action from storytelling. 

Can you make money from these thought experiments and descriptions? Unlikely. While the world order may fall quickly, the price activity before the fall will drive profits not a vision of what the new order will look like. Follow the price action in an uncertain world. 

However, there is a major global economic theme that should be accounted for; the tension between mercantilism and the liberal order of free trade and capital. When the global economy is expanding, the liberal order is in ascent. If there are shortages, mercantilism will be the choice of governments. The world focuses on real commodity assets not fiat money. National order trumps liberal order during crises. This is something that is not fin-fi, but geopolitical reality.