Sunday, March 27, 2022

Sector Rotation and Inflation - A different form of diversification

One way to gain some protection from inflation is to rotate sector exposures away from those sectors that are more inflation sensitive. Recent research work focuses on inflation regimes what should be avoided and what should offer some protection.  See "The Best Strategies for Inflationary Times". For example, historically holding energy and health should do well in inflation regimes. For fixed income, there is less protection except through holding TIPS and short-duration instruments. 

Using the most recent one year period as the higher inflation regime, holding energy and health sectors would have generated respectively 60% and 18.5%. A tilt to commodities and necessary consumer spending will help investors. These were the number one and three top performing sectors with number two being technology at 22%. The TIPS ETF was down 1 for the last year versus down 7% for the AGG ETF.

Will this relative sector performance continue? Under a current environment of a cautious Fed, the answer seems likely.


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