The life of a farmer; crop prices are moving higher but the cost of production may increase even faster. The most important issue is that using less fertilizer will decrease crop yields. For the same acreage planted, there will be less output. A supply shortfall is baked into crops without accounting for weather.
Some basics fertilizer information. Nitrogen is needed every year, but phosphate and potash can be skipped for a year or two based on farmer field practices. Nitrogen is the most important fertilizer because it is used for the formation of plant protein. Nitrogen prices are closely tied to natural gas prices. Phosphorous is linked to a plant's ability to store energy, and potassium supports a plant's resistance to disease and strengthens root systems. See the Fertilizer Institute.
The fertilizer problem is not going to go away even if the Ukraine war ends soon if there are Russia sanctions. There is a current net imbalance in the market; however, a fertilizer crash did occur in 2009 that matched the last commodity super-cycle.
Three top fertilizer companies are: Mosaic (MOS) focuses on potash and phosphate, CF Industries (CF) focuses on nitrogen/gas, Nutrien (NTR), a Canadian company, is the top vertically integrated fertilizer producer in the western hemisphere. These firms have been on aggressive stock buyback programs to return earnings to shareholders. The price increases have been a pass-through to investors.
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