Friday, February 11, 2022

"History is particular, economics is general."


"History is particular, economics is general."

- Charles Kindleberger 

Economists love to generalize even if at the extreme when the sample size is one. Take any event and an economist will try and find some commonality with theory and past events. It is what they do. Behavior repeats and the job of the economist is to find the repetition and suggest predictions about future events.

Historians often look to the particular and unique facts about an event. Generalizations can be boring. Being able to find the unique catalysts is the exciting part of history. There is generalization but the focus is on getting the details right. 

Some investors are generalists while others look for uniqueness. Quants are like economists who generalize to find repeatable patterns in past events to make predictions on the future. Deep value investors will act like the historians that are focused on the particular that cannot be generalized. 

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