9, 7, 6, 4 - what is the right number for Fed rate increases?

There has been a new rate hike forecast from JP Morgan that there will be nine straight Fed hikes. This new forecast is greater than the Goldman Sachs 7 hikes, Morgan Stanley 6 hikes and the many forecasts for at least 4 hikes. The forecast targets are increasing quickly, but there seems to be a growing consensus for a hike at every Fed meeting in 2022. There are Fed meetings in March, May, June, July, September, November, and December with four Summary of Economic Projection meetings on the March quarterly cycle. 

Treasury 2-year rates are hovering around 150 bps, about 50 bps higher than 1-year Treasuries. End of the year Fed funds futures are at 150 bps while eurodollar futures to March 2023 are at 200 bps and 175 bps for year end. Hence, the 9 and 7 forecasts are aggressive versus current market discounting.  

These hike at every meeting forecasts seems aggressive even though the Fed is behind the inflation reality. Economic numbers will vary through the year and there does not seem to be a consensus to solve the inflation problem especially if growth starts to wane. The core Fed secret is that higher rates to tame inflation are also supposed to slow economic growth. Any success on the inflation front coupled with slower growth is likely to be met with Fed caution to delay action. The go-no-go Fed action will be the market trades driving fixed income.