Tuesday, May 18, 2021

Semiconductor inflation hysteria or something else? Follow prices, not the news


No chips! No chips! There have been recurring stories and a meme that the US and global economy is having a semiconductor shortfall. Shortages and supply problems exist. Farm equipment cannot be sold to dealers and framers because there is a chip shortage. Auto plants are closing because of chip shortages. Chip shortages are becoming described as a national security issue. 

If there is a chip shortage one would expect that semiconductor prices will increase significantly. The data show something else. Year over year price changes are still negative. A look at the semiconductor SOX index ETF (SOXX) shows a price decline from April highs and is at the same level as mid-January.

Follow the news or follow the price action. There may be logistical issues and bottlenecks, but it is generally better to follow prices.




 

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