Commodity shock sensitivity - Look at stocks to usage ratio

Let's put the commodity super-cycle discussion aside and focus on the more immediate issue of declining stocks to usage ratios for soybeans and corn. When inventories are low, commodity markets get more sensitive to any demand shocks. There will be a scramble for soybeans and corn, and nearby prices will reflect the stock-out risk. When inventories are high and can be used as a buffer stock, any demand shock will be muted. 

Trends can extend and move well outside the norm for the last few years in low inventory markets. The longer term stocks to usage tables below tells the price story when inventories are low. A price rally from current levels is not assured, but if you had to bet on a tail event, this is a good year.