There is an ebb and flow of themes within global macro trading. These themes dominate trading and discussions. The list can change throughout the year with both additions and subtractions. Our chart shows some of the major themes in 2015 which shows a strong focus on China related events. Between China equity volatility, RMB devaluation, and the current stock decline, the macro focus is on China as the key driver. We could add in the decline in oil prices as a sign of an EM growth slowdown which is further related to China. Any delay with the a Fed lift-off may be driven by the fall-out from China. It is hard to image the Fed not looking closely at international events.
The winter slowdown, the oil price decline in the first quarter, and the Greek Crisis all seem like distant memories relative to the focus on China. The current themes may fall off our list of key focus points for discussion, but the size of China and its potential impact make it seem unlikely. We will be discussing China growth and policy changes for the rest of the year.
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