- Kinlaw, Kritzman, and Turkington "Toward Determining Systemic Importance"
I really like these simple definitions of systemic and systematic risk. It is good to review these definitions when we are faced with some possible systemic and systematic risks. I think we may say that a China devaluation may turn into a systematic risk. We cannot say for sure until after it starts to affect global markets, but this somewhat isolated event may have spill-over to all asset classes. A decline in the China stock market could be viewed as a systematic risk that will affect many individual stocks. It could turn into a systemic risk if starts to carry across multiple asset classes in unexpected ways.
Could these definitions be splitting hairs? I think the Greece crisis was systemic risk and the potential bankruptcy of Puerto Rico could be a systemic risk. The Fed raising rates represents more of a systematic risk. Systematic risks are those that we can be clearly measured. We can find a "beta" for the sensitivity to a rate increase or a stock market decrease. A systemic risk is harder to measure. There is no beta that is measurable for these more one-off events. We may be able to measure linkages across markets and sectors, but whether a shocks will take hold cannot be easily determined. This is what makes systematic risks so nasty and why there is a need to deeply think about "tail risk", hedging, and diversification.
No comments:
Post a Comment