The rationale for global macro trading is based on Samuelson's Dictum which was first discussed by Robert Schiller. Markets are "micro efficient but macro inefficient". Markets work much better on relative pricing than for absolute pricing. We have a lot of information on relative pricing and arbitrage, but we do not have as much information on the absolute value of an asset or what should be its price through time.
To paraphrase Larry Summers, we know a lot about the relative pricing of ketchup in different sized bottles but we may not be able to predict the absolute price of ketchup or tomatoes. For example, we have lots of information on the relative price between auto stocks or the price between a 5 and 10-year bond. We have less information on the value of GM through time or with the level of interest rates.
There is more uncertainty in absolute pricing so this is where global macro traders make their money and differentiate themselves from their peers. The understanding of risk premium through time is the key issue. Because this is so difficult, macro traders will often mix in relative pricing strategies inot their funds, but the big returns are made on the absolute price effects.
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