The fund’s World Economic Outlook now estimates only a 0.1 per cent probability of global recession in 2014, compared with a 6 per cent chance last October, with similarly reduced risks for 2015. from the FT earlier this week.
So let's get this straight. The chance of a global recession is 1/10th of 1 percent but the Fed still thinks the economy is fragile and needs monetary help. Do these positions make sense? I don't think so. This is why the focus has to be on the evidence which seems to be mixed as we enter the second quarter. It is hard to believe that we have to push tightening into 2015 if you believe the IMF. If you believe the Fed, the IMF forecast is rubbish.
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