Gerdankenexperiment and crisis investing

What will happen if there is a Greece exit from the euro? We do not know because it has not happen before. This is why we need to develop a gedankenexperiment on what different institutions or players may do under this event. The thought experiment seems like a good approach to anticipate actions and responses. The thought experiment is not easy because so many actions cannot be anticipated, but the process of thinking through the logic of an event will give any investor an edge.

We can assume that consumers and investors will act rationally and try to profit maximize. We can also expect that there will be a shortage of good information which will increase the likelihood that there will be more herding behavior by all. If this is the case, we should see a run on all of the local banks. A depositor will want to gain hard currency before the announcement. So a good tip on whether there will be an exit is through watching bank deposits.

We are already seeing the outflow of deposits. Government officials will also expect this, so we should see an increase in the announcements for calm. We will also realize that the announcement will be a surprise. Companies will try an move cash offshore. All of this suggests that the exit may turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. 

The thought experiment will turn into a nightmare very quickly.