Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Commodities following European stocks


A simple comparison shows that the DJUBS index has tracked closely with Euro Stoxx 50 index and not with the S&P 500. The macro risks from Greece have weighed heavily on commodity markets, so the link with euro stocks is strong and has been growing. 

During the first part of the 2011, commodity markets were closely linked to the S&P 500, but there has now been a switch to a lower correlation with the US and a higher correlation with Europe. During the first half of 2011, the correlation with the S&P 500 was above .9, now the correlation is below .2 The correlation with Euro Stoxx index was .7 during the first half of 2011 and is currently at .8. The exception was the beginning of 2012 when commodities were moving to expectations concerning the Chinese economy and there was little correlation with wither stock market.

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