With the sharp back-up in interest rates for the benchmark 10-year Treasury this month, there is growing talk that the long-term bull market for bonds is finally over. The low of the last 50 years was hit last September at 1.70% for the 10-year. Rates have been below 3% since 2008 which is also the lowest extended period in 50 years.
The bull market can only continue if there is a new global recession or new financial crisis. If there is another recession or a financial crisis, the Fed would engage in another round of quantitative a sing which would involve long-term bond purchases. If the Fed thinks that there will not be a recession, it will not engage in QE, so there would be upward pressure on rates. Real rates would likely move to positive territory and expected inflation would increase. If we return to normal, the bull market is over.
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