Monday, October 27, 2025

From monetary to fiscal activism or both

 


There are policy regimes that will impact markets. The post-GFC period was focused on monetary policy as the key tool, with quantitative easing and extremely low rates (negative in some countries). This was also a period of fiscal austerity, with governments not attempting to push debt-to-GDP levels to extremes. There were, of course, exceptions. The pandemic also saw quantitative easing used again to avert a crisis, along with fiscal policy as an additional tool. This was clearly the case in the US, with what may have been considered temporary turning into something that looks more permanent. 

The switch to more aggressive fiscal policy affects the central bank's independence and alters the credit risk exposure for many investors. The cost of financing is an issue, as well as the potential term premium needed to attract bond investors. The potential for a credit crisis is heightened. Indeed, there is a change in the relative safety of different sovereign debts.

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