Friday, June 20, 2025

What makes a good forecaster from Dan Gardner


Dan Gardner,  an essential writer on forecasting, states that there are three key components to being a good forecaster. 

Aggregation - Good forecasters are great aggregators of information and other opinions. They will utilize all available information, even if it contradicts their current views. They will seek out alternatives. They are open to small ideas and not a single unifying thesis. 

Meta-cognition - They are good probabilistic thinkers who also take into account their own biases. They are fully aware of decision bias and reflect on whether they are engaging in these biases. Hence, they never rush to judgment.

Humility -  Good forecasters will admit when they are wrong. Hence, they show a significant amount of humility in their work. They do not have to prove they are right. They can accept error and then try to adjust. 

Use these three components as a checklist to ask whether you are making good forecasts.

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