Thursday, December 26, 2024

The politics of consumer expectations - hard to understand

It may seem very odd that consumer expectations would have such a strong political component. It is even odder that we have seen a complete flip in the expectations since the presidential election. This may have something to do with the type of work that is done by each group and their income levels. It should not be associated with what is being read by voters.

If the Republicans represent blue collar voters who have been harmed by inflation and perceived government policies that may explain the divergence and why there has been a surge in Republican consumer sentiment under the view that the economy will do better under a new administration. It does not explain why there should be such a fall in Democrat consumer sentiment given the survey focuses on spending patterns and not social and political sentiment. The perception of consumers based on politics seems like a rich area for further analysis.

Consumer sentiment, in total is moving higher after a fall earlier in the year.
 

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