Forecasting and Shakespeare

 

If you can look into the seeds of time 

And say which grains will grow and which will not,

Speak then to me 

Macbeth (I, iii)

Of course, this is a conversation with witches, but the basic premise holds true. If you can look at a handful of seeds and say which ones will grow, then let's have a conversation otherwise, it is a waste of time. For investors, if someone has the skill to forecast correctly expected returns, then it may be worth conducting active management, but if there is no skill then focus on passive allocations.