Sunday, March 3, 2024

Disorder - Hard Times in he 21st century - Expansive read on current times

 


Helen Thompson, a professor of political economy at Cambridge, has written an expansive book, Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century, on the current disorder around the world through three histories. She looks at the geopolitics of the last century, the world economy, and the changes in western democracies. All are in disruption and face uncertainty. All are integrated and lead to a single story. Interestingly, all are tied to the economics of oil.

This is a dense book with an expansive vision of the world order. Do not expect this to be a fast read, but the result is a deeper understanding of how the world is connected. 

Why is this critical for macro investors? The reason is simple, global uncertainty will lead to market disruptions. You need to know the drivers of disruptions. Why is this critical for quant investors? Regimes change and model sensitivities will change with regime switches. If you are not aware of the global disorder, you will be subject to forecast biases and losses. 

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