Conference Board LEI flashing red - A strong macro indicator

I am a close follower of the leading economic indicator indices. If the index turns down, there should be a concern. If it turns negative, there is a warning, and if it falls below 5% there is a recession signal. The Conference Board uses the 6-month growth rate annualized at its recession indicator. A faster or slower model will give similar results. 

For investors, the key is not the recession signal but the warning. It is the warning that causes a market return adjustment. Regardless of the Fed policy, the LEI, which incorporates a credit index, gives a good growth picture both for the US and other countries. Follow the LEI and you will have a good macro market indicator.