Saturday, November 13, 2021

Fed monetary accommodation abounds - look at real yields

It is the real rate that matters. There are several ways to measure it, but the 5-year TIPS yield provides a good market measure of longer-term real rates. The fed could not be more accommodative. The TIPS market yield is lowest on record. Raising rates two or even three times at 25 bps in 2022 with inflation break-evens falling to 2 percent will still leave real rates at best near zero. It is not a matter of tightening but reducing what is perhaps a level of excess accommodation. Short of a strong reversal in growth, the interest rate bias is tilted to higher levels. 

No comments: