The Climate Prediction Center's Oceanic Nino Index shows cooler waters in the Pacific Ocean which is having an impact on global weather. The index is headed to decade lows which will translate into strong moisture and temperature differentials. There has already been an impact on some commodities, but this may spillover to the spring.
Supply shocks will lead to stronger agricultural trends because supply cannot be easily be replenished. Agriculture supplies are inelastic in the short-run. We cannot predict the strength of any trend, but odds for a price divergence are better when potential shock conditions strengthen. The current forecast from Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society shows some potential weather extremes.
That said, past La Nina events have not had an appreciable impact on, for example, Brazilian crops in the past, see cropprofit.com feature on ENSO cycles. This is the challenge for speculation, there is a risk set-up situation, yet the opportunity may not present itself until prices start to move.
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