"I am uncertain" vs. "It is uncertain" - Internal Versus External Uncertainty

Many throw around the word uncertainty without regard to its subtle meaning. There are different types of uncertainty. There can be internal uncertainty associated with your knowledge of facts. For example, "I am certain Mount Shasta is over 14,000 feet." You are not sure of its height, but you can look up the information and get the right number. This is uncertainty about a past event. This uncertainty can be resolved or eliminated through gaining knowledge. There is also external uncertainty which cannot be resolved with knowledge. This is uncertainty about the future that cannot be solved until the event described occurs. For example, "The odds of "Sea Biscuit" winning the next race is 4:1." 

How a speaker phrases uncertainty has an impact on the amount of uncertainty faced and the perception of the listener. For example, "I am uncertain about the growth of the money supply," has a different meaning than saying, "The growth of the money supply is uncertain." The subject of a probability defines a "who" or a "what". The phrasing may refer to the past, a piece of knowledge, or refer to a prediction of the future. A person has internal uncertainty while a topic is externally uncertain. 

Researchers have actually tested the phrasing of uncertainty and gained some interesting insights. They find, for example, that phrasing use the pronoun "I" by a speaker who is an expert conveys more confidence. Speakers use pronouns to mark subjectivity of source of uncertainty and may use "I" for more knowable outcomes. These are subtle issues but have impact on the message sent from the speaker and the message received by the listener. 

So much of investment decision-making is done by committee, so the use of language is highly relevant. The "I" versus "It" uncertainty issue is real and must be addressed. Committee members must probe on the type of uncertainty referred to in discussions by speakers. When risk and uncertainty is conveyed in language there is opportunity for misunderstanding.

See, “I am uncertain” vs “It is uncertain”. How linguistic markers of the uncertainty source affect uncertainty communication. Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 12, No. 5, September 2017, pp. 445-465.

For more on internal and external uncertainty see, Internal versus external uncertainty - Making distinctions for decision-makers