1. First,
the only certainty is that there is no certainty.
2. Second,
every decision, as a consequence, is a matter of weighing probabilities.
3. Third,
despite uncertainty, we must decide and we must act.
4. And
lastly, we need to judge decisions not only on the results, but on how they
were made.
First,
uncertainty… If there are no absolutes then all decisions become matters of
judging the probability of different outcomes, and the costs and benefits of
each. Then, on that basis, you can make a good decision.
Second,
a
healthy respect for uncertainty, and focus on probability, drives you never to
be satisfied with your conclusions.
Third,
being decisive in the face of uncertainty. In the end, all
decisions are based on imperfect or incomplete information. But decisions must
be made — and on a timely basis — whether in school, on the trading floor, or
in the White House.
Fourth,
and finally, judging decisions. Decisions tend to be judged solely on the results
they produce. But I believe the right test should focus heavily on the quality
of the decision making itself.
Time
and again during my tenure as Treasury Secretary and when I was on Wall Street,
I faced difficult decisions. But the lessons are always the same: good
decision-making is the key to good outcomes. Reject absolute answers and
recognize uncertainty. Weigh the probabilities. Don’t let uncertainty paralyze
you. And evaluate decisions not just on the results, but on how they are made.
Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin Remarks to the University of Pennsylvania Commencement Philadelphia, PA
5/17/1999
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