The World Economic Forum (WEF) Global Risk Report
serves as a useful guide on the broader set of risks that may impact the
world over the next year. This report is important because it moves outside the
narrow focus of finance and looks at a broader set of risks. Nowhere are
economic issues in the top five for impact or likelihood in 2017. This is
a big change from the 2007-2010 period. This is the first time economic issues
are neither in the likelihood or impact top five. The dominant category is
environmental which suggests that commodities markets are most likely to have
the immediate impact if there is a shock. Extreme weather and natural disasters
have the highest impact and likelihood combination from WEF analysis
What the WEF report highlights is that
diversification is still the best strategy for any investor. This strategy is
especially useful if one cannot isolate a potential economic shock. Be
prepared for the unexpected and for economic spillover from events that may not
seem to be immediately linked to financial markets.
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