Our Global Macro Themes on One Page suggests that the
surprise Trump rally will continue to dissipate as we refocus on economic
basics. Show me the economic numbers.
While growth expectations have increased for 2017, the last employment
report shows continued economic strength but not something that suggests we are
moving into a new growth regime. Numbers suggest a perhaps 2+ percent increase
with inflation inching to the magic 2% target. On the monetary side, we are
back to basics with a focus on the Fed and other central banks.
For any further “Trump rally” or “Trump bond sell-off”
traders are going to ask for the details of what to expect in the first 100
days of the administration. Political
developments in Europe will contribute to market noise, but the announcement of
the Fed action plan for 2017 is still the key market driver.
No comments:
Post a Comment