Risk management is more than applying quantitative tools
to measure things like volatility or skew. It is an operational
management problem of gathering and reporting data. The quality of risk
management is related to the ability of a manager to properly aggregate data
for analysis. Hence, strategies that have greater operational problems at
gathering information on risk will have higher risk.
A white paper called "Managing Risk in a New
World: Navigating the five major hurdles for hedge funds" from
SS&C/Advent describes the biggest risk management reporting problems for
hedge funds. We have taken their five hurdles and assessed whether managed
futures managers will have a hard time overcoming these impediments. This is
does not say that managed futures managers actually better control risks. It
does say that it should be easier to gather the right information to make risk
management decisions for this hedge fund style.
In very broad terms, managed futures risk management
is easier given reporting is easier. First, there is not a problem with
illiquid securities. All futures have a price and likely trade everyday.
Second, exchange trading makes for easier reporting. A trade can be executed
and the matched trade is reported to the exchange. Margin can be assessed and
exposures can be measured. Third, given the exchange structure with a
clearinghouse, there is limited counter-party risk. Fourth, if trades are
done through multiple brokers and clearing firms, the process of reconciling or
aggregating positions is easy. Finally, given the defined characteristics of
the futures contracts, it is easy to report firm-wide positions. There is
little ambiguity of what is bought.
Overall, the ability of managed futures managers to provide aggregate
position information is relatively easy and the underlying instruments have
been developed to maximize liquidity and serve as generic contracts. Hence the
operational risk of managed futures will be lower than many other strategies.
Given operational risk is minimized, quantitative can be properly applied.
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